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Bundesliga · Matchday 22Saturday 20 February · 14:30 · Weserstadion
Werder Bremen5th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Dortmund2nd place
SVW 28%X 26%BVB 46%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Dortmund lead by 177 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Dortmund 0.4, Werder Bremen -0.2.
  • Dortmund take 1.8 points per game away.
  • If Werder Bremen score first, they win 57% of the time
  • If Dortmund score first, they win 72% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.6
Over 2.554%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Dortmund win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
128%3.56X26%3.79246%2.20
Double chance
1X54%1.84X272%1.391274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.554%1.85Under 2.546%2.18BTTS yes57%1.74BTTS no43%2.35

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Werder Bremen · Columns: Dortmund1-1 probability 12.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Dortmund – Werder Bremen9 October 20262-2
Werder Bremen – Dortmund16 May 20260-2
Dortmund – Werder Bremen13 January 20263-0
Dortmund – Werder Bremen25 January 20252-2
Werder Bremen – Dortmund31 August 20240-0
Werder Bremen – Dortmund9 March 20241-2