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Bundesliga · Matchday 22Saturday 20 February · 14:30 · BayArena
Leverkusen6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Mainz9th place
B04 55%X 24%M05 21%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Leverkusen lead by 89 rating points.
  • If Leverkusen score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Mainz score first, they win 47% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.3
Over 2.566%
Both teams score65%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Leverkusen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
155%1.82X24%4.16221%4.78
Double chance
1X79%1.26X245%2.231276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.566%1.50Under 2.534%2.98BTTS yes65%1.55BTTS no35%2.82

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Leverkusen · Columns: Mainz1-1 probability 9.6%

Form

Compare →
MainzWLWLL

Head to head

Mainz – Leverkusen10 October 20263-4
Leverkusen – Mainz28 February 20261-1
Mainz – Leverkusen18 October 20253-4
Mainz – Leverkusen17 May 20252-2
Leverkusen – Mainz14 January 20251-0
Leverkusen – Mainz23 February 20242-1