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Bundesliga · Matchday 24Tuesday 2 March · 19:30 · Allianz Arena
Bayern Munich1st place
Rinvalo prediction3-1High confidence
Freiburg3rd place
FCB 80%X 14%SCF 7%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Bayern Munich lead by 218 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Bayern Munich 2.4, Freiburg 0.3.
  • Bayern Munich take 2.6 points per game at home.
  • If Bayern Munich score first, they win 91% of the time
  • If Freiburg score first, they win 23% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 2%
Expected goals3.3 – 1.1
Over 2.582%
Both teams score63%
Likeliest score3-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
180%1.26X14%7.3027%14.90
Double chance
1X93%1.07X220%4.901286%1.16
Goals
Over 2.582%1.23Under 2.518%5.43BTTS yes63%1.58BTTS no37%2.74

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bayern Munich · Columns: Freiburg3-1 probability 8.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Freiburg – Bayern Munich25 October 20261-3
Freiburg – Bayern Munich4 April 20262-3
Bayern Munich – Freiburg22 November 20256-2
Freiburg – Bayern Munich25 January 20251-2
Bayern Munich – Freiburg1 September 20242-0
Freiburg – Bayern Munich1 March 20242-2