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Bundesliga · Matchday 24Tuesday 2 March · 19:30 · BayArena
Leverkusen6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Hoffenheim12th place
B04 49%X 25%TSG 26%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Leverkusen lead by 60 rating points.
  • If Leverkusen score first, they win 72% of the time
  • If Hoffenheim score first, they win 52% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.5
Over 2.571%
Both teams score70%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Leverkusen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
149%2.05X25%3.95226%3.87
Double chance
1X74%1.35X251%1.951275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.571%1.42Under 2.529%3.39BTTS yes70%1.44BTTS no30%3.29

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Leverkusen · Columns: Hoffenheim1-1 probability 9.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Hoffenheim – Leverkusen25 October 20263-0
Hoffenheim – Leverkusen17 January 20261-0
Leverkusen – Hoffenheim23 August 20251-2
Leverkusen – Hoffenheim2 February 20253-1
Hoffenheim – Leverkusen14 September 20241-4
Leverkusen – Hoffenheim30 March 20242-1