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Bundesliga · Matchday 24Tuesday 2 March · 19:30 · Weserstadion
Werder Bremen5th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Mainz9th place
SVW 45%X 27%M05 28%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Werder Bremen 2.2 points per game, Mainz 1.2.
  • If Werder Bremen score first, they win 71% of the time
  • If Mainz score first, they win 57% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.3
Over 2.557%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Werder Bremen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
145%2.21X27%3.76228%3.55
Double chance
1X72%1.39X255%1.831273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.557%1.74Under 2.543%2.35BTTS yes60%1.66BTTS no40%2.51

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Werder Bremen · Columns: Mainz1-1 probability 11.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Mainz – Werder Bremen24 October 20262-3
Werder Bremen – Mainz15 March 20260-2
Mainz – Werder Bremen1 November 20251-1
Werder Bremen – Mainz31 January 20251-0
Mainz – Werder Bremen15 September 20241-2
Mainz – Werder Bremen3 February 20240-1