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Championship · Matchday 31Saturday 13 February · 15:00 · St Andrew's @ Knighthead Park
Birmingham City6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Derby County23rd place
BIR 64%X 22%DER 14%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Birmingham City lead by 134 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Birmingham City 2.4 points per game, Derby County 0.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Birmingham City 0.3, Derby County -0.9.
  • If Birmingham City score first, they win 85% of the time
  • If Derby County score first, they win 42% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.9 – 0.8
Over 2.550%
Both teams score46%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
164%1.56X22%4.48214%7.27
Double chance
1X86%1.16X236%2.771278%1.29
Goals
Over 2.550%2.02Under 2.550%1.98BTTS yes46%2.18BTTS no54%1.85

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Birmingham City · Columns: Derby County2-0 probability 12.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Derby County – Birmingham City12 September 20261-2
Derby County – Birmingham City21 March 20261-0
Birmingham City – Derby County26 December 20251-1
Derby County – Birmingham City30 January 20222-2
Birmingham City – Derby County10 September 20212-0