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Championship · Matchday 31Saturday 13 February · 15:00 · Carrow Road
Norwich City15th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Middlesbrough1st place
NOR 28%X 27%MID 45%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Middlesbrough lead by 101 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Middlesbrough 2.6 points per game, Norwich City 1.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Middlesbrough 1.2, Norwich City -0.1.
  • If Norwich City score first, they win 56% of the time
  • If Middlesbrough score first, they win 71% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.7
Over 2.558%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Middlesbrough win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
128%3.57X27%3.75245%2.21
Double chance
1X55%1.83X272%1.391273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.558%1.71Under 2.542%2.41BTTS yes61%1.64BTTS no39%2.56

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Norwich City · Columns: Middlesbrough1-1 probability 11.6%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Middlesbrough – Norwich City12 September 20264-3
Middlesbrough – Norwich City31 January 20261-0
Norwich City – Middlesbrough23 August 20251-2
Middlesbrough – Norwich City26 April 20250-0
Norwich City – Middlesbrough27 October 20243-3
Middlesbrough – Norwich City6 March 20243-1