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Championship · Matchday 31Saturday 13 February · 15:00 · Ashton Gate Stadium
Bristol City14th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Southampton2nd place
BRC 26%X 26%SOU 48%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Southampton lead by 179 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Southampton 2.6 points per game, Bristol City 1.0.
  • Southampton take 1.9 points per game away.
  • If Bristol City score first, they win 55% of the time
  • If Southampton score first, they win 74% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.6
Over 2.553%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Southampton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
126%3.84X26%3.82248%2.09
Double chance
1X52%1.91X274%1.351274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.553%1.90Under 2.547%2.12BTTS yes56%1.79BTTS no44%2.27

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bristol City · Columns: Southampton1-1 probability 12.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Southampton – Bristol City12 September 20264-1
Southampton – Bristol City21 April 20262-2
Bristol City – Southampton21 October 20253-1
Bristol City – Southampton13 February 20243-1
Southampton – Bristol City29 November 20231-0