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Championship · Matchday 31Saturday 13 February · 15:00 · bet365 Stadium
Stoke City7th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Watford21st place
STK 50%X 28%WAT 23%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Stoke City lead by 98 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Stoke City 2.0 points per game, Watford 0.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Stoke City -0.3, Watford -0.9.
  • If Stoke City score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Watford score first, they win 55% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.5 – 0.9
Over 2.544%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Stoke City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
150%2.00X28%3.62223%4.44
Double chance
1X77%1.29X250%2.001272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.544%2.26Under 2.556%1.79BTTS yes48%2.08BTTS no52%1.93

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Stoke City · Columns: Watford1-1 probability 13.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Watford – Stoke City12 September 20261-2
Stoke City – Watford14 March 20263-1
Watford – Stoke City20 December 20251-0
Stoke City – Watford1 March 20250-0
Watford – Stoke City17 August 20243-0
Watford – Stoke City29 December 20231-1