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Championship · Matchday 20Tuesday 8 December · 20:00 · St Andrew's @ Knighthead Park
Birmingham City6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Watford21st place
BIR 65%X 22%WAT 13%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Birmingham City lead by 172 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Birmingham City 2.4 points per game, Watford 0.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Birmingham City 0.3, Watford -0.9.
  • If Birmingham City score first, they win 86% of the time
  • If Watford score first, they win 41% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.9 – 0.7
Over 2.549%
Both teams score44%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
165%1.53X22%4.60213%7.79
Double chance
1X87%1.15X235%2.891278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.549%2.04Under 2.551%1.96BTTS yes44%2.26BTTS no56%1.80

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Birmingham City · Columns: Watford2-0 probability 13.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Watford – Birmingham City1 January 20263-0
Birmingham City – Watford1 December 20252-1
Birmingham City – Watford16 March 20240-1
Watford – Birmingham City16 September 20232-0
Watford – Birmingham City14 March 20233-0
Birmingham City – Watford16 August 20221-1