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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 20Wednesday 9 December · 19:45 · Pride Park Stadium
Derby County23rd place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Bristol City14th place
DER 32%X 29%BRC 39%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Bristol City 0.6, Derby County -0.9.
  • If Derby County score first, they win 64% of the time
  • If Bristol City score first, they win 69% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.3
Over 2.546%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Bristol City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
132%3.10X29%3.49239%2.56
Double chance
1X61%1.64X268%1.481271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.546%2.19Under 2.554%1.84BTTS yes52%1.93BTTS no48%2.07

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Derby County · Columns: Bristol City1-1 probability 13.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Bristol City – Derby County30 January 20260-5
Derby County – Bristol City22 August 20251-1
Bristol City – Derby County4 January 20251-0
Derby County – Bristol City31 August 20243-0
Derby County – Bristol City23 April 20221-3
Bristol City – Derby County4 December 20211-0