TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 40Saturday 3 April · 15:00 · Ewood Park
Blackburn Rovers13th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Southampton2nd place
BLB 21%X 25%SOU 54%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Southampton lead by 173 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Southampton 0.2, Blackburn Rovers -0.9.
  • Last 5 games: Southampton 2.6 points per game, Blackburn Rovers 1.8.
  • If Blackburn Rovers score first, they win 50% of the time
  • If Southampton score first, they win 79% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.8
Over 2.552%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Southampton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
121%4.84X25%4.01254%1.84
Double chance
1X46%2.19X279%1.261275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.552%1.93Under 2.548%2.07BTTS yes53%1.89BTTS no47%2.12

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Blackburn Rovers · Columns: Southampton1-1 probability 12.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Southampton – Blackburn Rovers14 April 20263-0
Blackburn Rovers – Southampton25 October 20252-1
Blackburn Rovers – Southampton6 April 20240-0
Southampton – Blackburn Rovers16 December 20234-0