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Championship · Matchday 40Saturday 3 April · 15:00 · Fratton Park
Portsmouth11th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Middlesbrough1st place
POR 25%X 27%MID 48%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Middlesbrough lead by 119 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Middlesbrough 1.2, Portsmouth 0.1.
  • If Portsmouth score first, they win 55% of the time
  • If Middlesbrough score first, they win 75% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.6
Over 2.550%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Middlesbrough win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
125%3.97X27%3.72248%2.09
Double chance
1X52%1.92X275%1.341273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.550%1.99Under 2.550%2.01BTTS yes54%1.86BTTS no46%2.17

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Portsmouth · Columns: Middlesbrough1-1 probability 12.7%

Form

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Head to head

Middlesbrough – Portsmouth11 April 20260-1
Portsmouth – Middlesbrough4 October 20251-0
Portsmouth – Middlesbrough18 January 20252-1
Middlesbrough – Portsmouth24 August 20242-2