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Championship · Matchday 40Saturday 3 April · 12:30 · The Valley
Charlton Athletic20th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Millwall12th place
CHA 24%X 27%MIL 49%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Millwall lead by 145 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Millwall 0.5, Charlton Athletic -0.6.
  • Last 5 games: Millwall 1.4 points per game, Charlton Athletic 0.4.
  • If Charlton Athletic score first, they win 56% of the time
  • If Millwall score first, they win 77% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.5
Over 2.543%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Millwall win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
124%4.16X27%3.66249%2.05
Double chance
1X51%1.95X276%1.321273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.543%2.31Under 2.557%1.76BTTS yes48%2.09BTTS no52%1.92

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Charlton Athletic · Columns: Millwall1-1 probability 13.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Millwall – Charlton Athletic24 January 20264-0
Charlton Athletic – Millwall13 September 20251-1