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Championship · Matchday 40Saturday 3 April · 15:00 · Cardiff City Stadium
Cardiff City17th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Bristol City14th place
CAR 40%X 27%BRC 33%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Derby match.
  • If Cardiff City score first, they win 68% of the time
  • If Bristol City score first, they win 63% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.3
Over 2.550%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Cardiff City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
140%2.52X27%3.65233%3.04
Double chance
1X67%1.49X260%1.661273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.550%2.01Under 2.550%1.99BTTS yes55%1.82BTTS no45%2.22

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Cardiff City · Columns: Bristol City1-1 probability 13.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Cardiff City – Bristol City15 February 20251-1
Bristol City – Cardiff City6 October 20241-1
Bristol City – Cardiff City2 March 20240-1
Cardiff City – Bristol City28 October 20232-0
Cardiff City – Bristol City4 March 20232-0
Bristol City – Cardiff City21 August 20222-0