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Championship · Matchday 40Saturday 3 April · 15:00 · bet365 Stadium
Stoke City7th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Burnley22nd place
STK 38%X 29%BUR 33%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Stoke City 2.0 points per game, Burnley 1.0.
  • If Stoke City score first, they win 69% of the time
  • If Burnley score first, they win 64% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.2
Over 2.545%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Stoke City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
138%2.61X29%3.45233%3.06
Double chance
1X67%1.48X262%1.621271%1.41
Goals
Over 2.545%2.21Under 2.555%1.83BTTS yes51%1.94BTTS no49%2.06

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Stoke City · Columns: Burnley1-1 probability 13.7%

Form

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Head to head

Burnley – Stoke City1 January 20250-0
Stoke City – Burnley30 November 20240-2
Stoke City – Burnley30 December 20220-1
Burnley – Stoke City5 October 20221-1