TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 40Saturday 3 April · 15:00 · LNER Stadium
Lincoln City16th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Derby County23rd place
LIN 45%X 27%DER 28%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Lincoln City -0.1, Derby County -0.9.
  • If Lincoln City score first, they win 73% of the time
  • If Derby County score first, they win 58% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.2
Over 2.550%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Lincoln City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
145%2.23X27%3.66228%3.60
Double chance
1X72%1.38X255%1.821273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.550%2.00Under 2.550%2.00BTTS yes54%1.84BTTS no46%2.19

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lincoln City · Columns: Derby County1-1 probability 12.9%

Form

Compare →