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Championship · Matchday 12Friday 23 October · 20:00 · Toughsheet Community Stadium
Bolton Wanderers19th place
Full time1-5Rinvalo's pick: 1-2✓ Result correct
Middlesbrough1st place
BOL 19%X 24%MID 57%

What does the market say?

Bolton WanderersDrawMiddlesbroughRinvalo19%24%57%
Market20%22%59%

✓ Agree · both back Middlesbrough

Prediction

Predicted: 1-2
Key factors
  • Middlesbrough lead by 153 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Middlesbrough 0.8, Bolton Wanderers -0.6.
  • If Bolton Wanderers score first, they win 46% of the time
  • If Middlesbrough score first, they win 79% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.1 – 2.0
Over 2.560%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Middlesbrough win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
119%5.16X24%4.25257%1.75
Double chance
1X43%2.33X281%1.241276%1.31
Goals
Over 2.560%1.66Under 2.540%2.52BTTS yes59%1.70BTTS no41%2.43

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bolton Wanderers · Columns: Middlesbrough1-5 probability 1.3% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Bolton Wanderers – Middlesbrough23 October 20261-5