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Picks
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Championship · Matchday 12Saturday 24 October · 12:30 · Fratton Park
Portsmouth11th place
Full time2-1Rinvalo's pick: 0-1✕ Missed
Millwall12th place
POR 32%X 29%MIL 39%

What does the market say?

PortsmouthDrawMillwallRinvalo32%29%39%
Market38%28%34%

⚠ Split · Rinvalo Millwall 39%, market Portsmouth 38%

Prediction

Predicted: 0-1
Key factors
  • Millwall lead by 77 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Millwall 0.7, Portsmouth -0.1.
  • If Portsmouth score first, they win 63% of the time
  • If Millwall score first, they win 69% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.3
Over 2.546%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Millwall win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
132%3.13X29%3.49239%2.53
Double chance
1X61%1.65X268%1.471271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.546%2.15Under 2.554%1.87BTTS yes52%1.91BTTS no48%2.10

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Portsmouth · Columns: Millwall2-1 probability 7.5% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Portsmouth – Millwall24 October 20262-1
Millwall – Portsmouth21 February 20261-3
Portsmouth – Millwall22 November 20253-1
Millwall – Portsmouth5 April 20252-1
Portsmouth – Millwall28 January 20250-1