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Championship · Matchday 12Saturday 24 October · 12:30 · Bramall Lane
Sheffield United10th place
Full time1-1Rinvalo's pick: 1-0✕ Missed
Derby County23rd place
SHU 48%X 28%DER 24%

What does the market say?

Sheffield UnitedDrawDerby CountyRinvalo48%28%24%
Market52%25%23%

✓ Agree · both back Sheffield United

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Sheffield United -0.4, Derby County -1.0.
  • If Sheffield United score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Derby County score first, they win 55% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.0
Over 2.548%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Sheffield United win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
148%2.07X28%3.64224%4.13
Double chance
1X76%1.32X252%1.931272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.548%2.08Under 2.552%1.93BTTS yes52%1.93BTTS no48%2.08

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sheffield United · Columns: Derby County1-1 probability 12.9% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Sheffield United – Derby County24 October 20261-1
Derby County – Sheffield United2 May 20261-2
Sheffield United – Derby County1 November 20251-3
Derby County – Sheffield United1 February 20250-1
Sheffield United – Derby County21 September 20241-0
Derby County – Sheffield United15 January 20222-0