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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 12Saturday 24 October · 15:00 · LNER Stadium
Lincoln City16th place
Full time4-1Rinvalo's pick: 1-0✓ Result correct
Burnley22nd place
LIN 38%X 30%BUR 32%

What does the market say?

Lincoln CityDrawBurnleyRinvalo38%30%32%
Market32%27%40%

⚠ Split · Rinvalo Lincoln City 38%, market Burnley 40%

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Lincoln City 1.6 points per game, Burnley 0.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Lincoln City 0.2, Burnley -0.3.
  • If Lincoln City score first, they win 71% of the time
  • If Burnley score first, they win 66% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 12%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.0
Over 2.537%
Both teams score45%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Lincoln City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
138%2.61X30%3.36232%3.13
Double chance
1X68%1.47X262%1.621270%1.42
Goals
Over 2.537%2.68Under 2.563%1.60BTTS yes45%2.22BTTS no55%1.82

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lincoln City · Columns: Burnley4-1 probability 0.9% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Lincoln City – Burnley24 October 20264-1