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Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 12Saturday 24 October · 15:00 · Cardiff City Stadium
Cardiff City17th place
Full time1-0Rinvalo's pick: 0-1✕ Missed
Birmingham City6th place
CAR 31%X 27%BIR 42%

What does the market say?

Cardiff CityDrawBirmingham CityRinvalo31%27%42%
Market35%25%39%

✓ Agree · both back Birmingham City

Prediction

Predicted: 0-1
Key factors
  • Birmingham City lead by 98 rating points.
  • If Cardiff City score first, they win 61% of the time
  • If Birmingham City score first, they win 70% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.4
Over 2.548%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Birmingham City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
131%3.23X27%3.64242%2.41
Double chance
1X58%1.71X269%1.451273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.548%2.10Under 2.552%1.91BTTS yes53%1.89BTTS no47%2.13

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Cardiff City · Columns: Birmingham City1-0 probability 8.0% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Cardiff City – Birmingham City24 October 20261-0
Birmingham City – Cardiff City10 April 20240-1
Cardiff City – Birmingham City13 December 20230-1
Birmingham City – Cardiff City14 February 20230-2
Cardiff City – Birmingham City13 August 20221-0
Cardiff City – Birmingham City30 April 20221-1