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Championship · Matchday 42Saturday 10 April · 15:00 · Toughsheet Community Stadium
Bolton Wanderers19th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Millwall12th place
BOL 23%X 25%MIL 52%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Millwall lead by 120 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Millwall 0.5, Bolton Wanderers -0.7.
  • If Bolton Wanderers score first, they win 51% of the time
  • If Millwall score first, they win 76% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.8
Over 2.557%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Millwall win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
123%4.30X25%4.04252%1.92
Double chance
1X48%2.08X277%1.301275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.557%1.76Under 2.543%2.31BTTS yes58%1.73BTTS no42%2.38

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bolton Wanderers · Columns: Millwall1-1 probability 11.6%

Form

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Head to head

Millwall – Bolton Wanderers5 September 20264-0