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Championship · Matchday 42Saturday 10 April · 15:00 · Pride Park Stadium
Derby County23rd place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
West Ham8th place
DER 27%X 25%WHU 48%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: West Ham 0.9, Derby County -0.9.
  • West Ham lead by 102 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: West Ham 1.4 points per game, Derby County 0.4.
  • If Derby County score first, they win 54% of the time
  • If West Ham score first, they win 72% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.9
Over 2.565%
Both teams score66%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a West Ham win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
127%3.72X25%3.97248%2.08
Double chance
1X52%1.92X273%1.371275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.565%1.54Under 2.535%2.86BTTS yes66%1.53BTTS no34%2.90

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Derby County · Columns: West Ham1-1 probability 10.3%

Form

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Head to head

West Ham – Derby County5 September 20263-0