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Championship · Matchday 16Saturday 21 November · 15:00 · Toughsheet Community Stadium
Bolton Wanderers19th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Portsmouth11th place
BOL 31%X 27%POR 42%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Portsmouth lead by 84 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Portsmouth 2.2 points per game, Bolton Wanderers 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Portsmouth 0.1, Bolton Wanderers -0.7.
  • If Bolton Wanderers score first, they win 60% of the time
  • If Portsmouth score first, they win 69% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.5
Over 2.553%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Portsmouth win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
131%3.24X27%3.64242%2.40
Double chance
1X58%1.71X269%1.451273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.553%1.89Under 2.547%2.12BTTS yes57%1.75BTTS no43%2.33

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bolton Wanderers · Columns: Portsmouth1-1 probability 12.7%

Form

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