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Championship · Matchday 16Saturday 21 November · 15:00 · Bramall Lane
Sheffield United10th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Watford21st place
SHU 57%X 25%WAT 18%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Sheffield United lead by 123 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Sheffield United 2.0 points per game, Watford 0.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Sheffield United -0.2, Watford -0.9.
  • If Sheffield United score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Watford score first, they win 48% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.7 – 0.9
Over 2.549%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Sheffield United win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
157%1.76X25%3.99218%5.49
Double chance
1X82%1.22X243%2.311275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.549%2.03Under 2.551%1.97BTTS yes50%2.02BTTS no50%1.98

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sheffield United · Columns: Watford1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

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Head to head

Watford – Sheffield United18 April 20260-2
Sheffield United – Watford18 October 20251-0
Watford – Sheffield United4 January 20251-2
Sheffield United – Watford1 September 20241-0
Sheffield United – Watford25 February 20231-0
Watford – Sheffield United1 August 20221-0