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Championship · Matchday 16Saturday 21 November · 15:00 · bet365 Stadium
Stoke City7th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Birmingham City6th place
STK 29%X 29%BIR 43%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Birmingham City lead by 74 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Birmingham City 0.3, Stoke City -0.3.
  • If Stoke City score first, they win 61% of the time
  • If Birmingham City score first, they win 73% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.3
Over 2.543%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Birmingham City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
129%3.48X29%3.50243%2.34
Double chance
1X57%1.74X271%1.401271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.543%2.32Under 2.557%1.76BTTS yes49%2.03BTTS no51%1.97

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Stoke City · Columns: Birmingham City1-1 probability 13.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Birmingham City – Stoke City24 January 20261-1
Stoke City – Birmingham City13 September 20251-0
Stoke City – Birmingham City20 January 20241-2
Birmingham City – Stoke City26 December 20231-3
Birmingham City – Stoke City10 April 20230-0
Stoke City – Birmingham City5 November 20221-2