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Championship · Matchday 16Saturday 21 November · 12:30 · St. Mary's Stadium
Southampton2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Derby County23rd place
SOU 73%X 18%DER 9%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Southampton lead by 236 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Southampton 2.6 points per game, Derby County 0.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Southampton 0.2, Derby County -0.9.
  • If Southampton score first, they win 89% of the time
  • If Derby County score first, they win 32% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.4 – 0.8
Over 2.561%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
173%1.37X18%5.5829%11.01
Double chance
1X91%1.10X227%3.701282%1.22
Goals
Over 2.561%1.64Under 2.539%2.57BTTS yes49%2.04BTTS no51%1.96

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Southampton · Columns: Derby County2-0 probability 12.2%

Form

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Head to head

Southampton – Derby County11 April 20262-1
Derby County – Southampton4 October 20251-1