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Championship · Matchday 26Saturday 16 January · 15:00 · Toughsheet Community Stadium
Bolton Wanderers19th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
Southampton2nd place
BOL 16%X 21%SOU 63%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Southampton lead by 239 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Southampton 2.6 points per game, Bolton Wanderers 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Southampton 0.2, Bolton Wanderers -0.7.
  • If Bolton Wanderers score first, they win 40% of the time
  • If Southampton score first, they win 82% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.1 – 2.3
Over 2.567%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score1-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
116%6.10X21%4.86263%1.59
Double chance
1X37%2.70X284%1.201279%1.26
Goals
Over 2.567%1.49Under 2.533%3.05BTTS yes62%1.61BTTS no38%2.63

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
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5
Rows: Bolton Wanderers · Columns: Southampton1-2 probability 9.6%

Form

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Head to head

Southampton – Bolton Wanderers17 October 20260-0