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Championship · Matchday 26Saturday 16 January · 15:00 · Cardiff City Stadium
Cardiff City17th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
Middlesbrough1st place
CAR 21%X 24%MID 56%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Middlesbrough lead by 193 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Middlesbrough 2.6 points per game, Cardiff City 1.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Middlesbrough 1.2, Cardiff City 0.2.
  • If Cardiff City score first, they win 48% of the time
  • If Middlesbrough score first, they win 78% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.9
Over 2.559%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Middlesbrough win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
121%4.81X24%4.24256%1.80
Double chance
1X44%2.25X279%1.261276%1.31
Goals
Over 2.559%1.71Under 2.541%2.42BTTS yes58%1.72BTTS no42%2.39

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Cardiff City · Columns: Middlesbrough1-1 probability 11.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Middlesbrough – Cardiff City17 October 20262-2
Middlesbrough – Cardiff City4 January 20251-1
Cardiff City – Middlesbrough31 August 20240-2
Cardiff City – Middlesbrough27 April 20241-4
Middlesbrough – Cardiff City3 October 20232-0
Cardiff City – Middlesbrough11 February 20231-3