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Championship · Matchday 26Saturday 16 January · 15:00 · bet365 Stadium
Stoke City7th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Derby County23rd place
STK 49%X 28%DER 23%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Stoke City 2.0 points per game, Derby County 0.4.
  • Stoke City lead by 60 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Stoke City -0.3, Derby County -0.9.
  • If Stoke City score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Derby County score first, they win 56% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.0
Over 2.545%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Stoke City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
149%2.05X28%3.59223%4.27
Double chance
1X77%1.31X251%1.951272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.545%2.23Under 2.555%1.81BTTS yes49%2.04BTTS no51%1.96

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Stoke City · Columns: Derby County1-1 probability 13.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Derby County – Stoke City17 October 20260-1
Derby County – Stoke City6 April 20262-0
Stoke City – Derby County9 August 20253-1
Derby County – Stoke City3 May 20250-0
Stoke City – Derby County2 November 20242-1
Stoke City – Derby County30 December 20211-2