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Premier League · Matchday 19Saturday 2 January · 17:30 · Vitality Stadium
Bournemouth7th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Aston Villa9th place
BOU 52%X 26%AVL 22%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Bournemouth 0.5, Aston Villa -0.3.
  • If Bournemouth score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Aston Villa score first, they win 51% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.1
Over 2.554%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Bournemouth win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
152%1.91X26%3.91222%4.54
Double chance
1X78%1.28X248%2.101274%1.34
Goals
Over 2.554%1.85Under 2.546%2.17BTTS yes55%1.81BTTS no45%2.24

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bournemouth · Columns: Aston Villa1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Bournemouth – Aston Villa7 February 20261-1
Aston Villa – Bournemouth9 November 20254-0
Bournemouth – Aston Villa10 May 20250-1
Aston Villa – Bournemouth26 October 20241-1
Aston Villa – Bournemouth21 April 20243-1
Bournemouth – Aston Villa3 December 20232-2