TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Premier League · Matchday 19Saturday 2 January · 12:30 · American Express Stadium
Brighton3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Manchester United17th place
BHA 52%X 26%MUN 22%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Brighton 2.4 points per game, Manchester United 0.6.
  • Brighton lead by 98 rating points.
  • Brighton take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Brighton score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Manchester United score first, they win 51% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.1
Over 2.557%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Brighton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
152%1.92X26%3.92222%4.45
Double chance
1X78%1.29X248%2.081274%1.34
Goals
Over 2.557%1.75Under 2.543%2.33BTTS yes58%1.73BTTS no42%2.38

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Brighton · Columns: Manchester United1-1 probability 11.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Brighton – Manchester United24 May 20260-3
Manchester United – Brighton25 October 20254-2
Manchester United – Brighton19 January 20251-3
Brighton – Manchester United24 August 20242-1
Brighton – Manchester United19 May 20240-2
Manchester United – Brighton16 September 20231-3