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Premier League · Matchday 19Saturday 2 January · 15:00 · Brentford Community Stadium
Brentford6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Crystal Palace18th place
BRE 57%X 24%CRY 18%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Brentford lead by 132 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Brentford -0.1, Crystal Palace -0.9.
  • Last 5 games: Brentford 1.6 points per game, Crystal Palace 0.8.
  • If Brentford score first, they win 80% of the time
  • If Crystal Palace score first, they win 47% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.0
Over 2.555%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-0 is the likeliest score within a Brentford win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
157%1.75X24%4.08218%5.47
Double chance
1X82%1.22X243%2.341276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.555%1.83Under 2.545%2.21BTTS yes54%1.85BTTS no46%2.17

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Brentford · Columns: Crystal Palace1-1 probability 11.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Brentford – Crystal Palace17 May 20262-2
Crystal Palace – Brentford1 November 20252-0
Crystal Palace – Brentford26 January 20251-2
Brentford – Crystal Palace18 August 20242-1
Crystal Palace – Brentford30 December 20233-1
Brentford – Crystal Palace26 August 20231-1