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Premier League · Matchday 19Sunday 3 January · 14:00 · Stamford Bridge
Chelsea4th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Newcastle United13th place
CHE 51%X 26%NEW 23%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Chelsea 0.0, Newcastle United -0.7.
  • If Chelsea score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Newcastle United score first, they win 51% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.3
Over 2.561%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Chelsea win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
151%1.95X26%3.89223%4.36
Double chance
1X77%1.30X249%2.061274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.561%1.63Under 2.539%2.59BTTS yes62%1.62BTTS no38%2.60

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Chelsea · Columns: Newcastle United1-1 probability 10.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Chelsea – Newcastle United14 March 20260-1
Newcastle United – Chelsea20 December 20252-2
Newcastle United – Chelsea11 May 20252-0
Chelsea – Newcastle United27 October 20242-1
Chelsea – Newcastle United11 March 20243-2
Newcastle United – Chelsea25 November 20234-1