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Ligue 1 · Matchday 15Saturday 2 January · 16:00 · Stade Francis-Le Blé
Brest14th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Marseille6th place
BRE 38%X 26%OM 36%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Brest 0.8, Marseille -0.4.
  • If Brest score first, they win 65% of the time
  • If Marseille score first, they win 62% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.6
Over 2.563%
Both teams score65%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Brest win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
138%2.61X26%3.83236%2.82
Double chance
1X64%1.55X262%1.621274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.563%1.58Under 2.537%2.72BTTS yes65%1.53BTTS no35%2.89

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Brest · Columns: Marseille1-1 probability 10.9%

Form

Compare →
BrestLLWDL

Head to head

Brest – Marseille20 February 20262-0
Marseille – Brest8 November 20253-0
Marseille – Brest27 April 20254-1
Brest – Marseille17 August 20241-5
Brest – Marseille18 February 20241-0
Marseille – Brest26 August 20232-0