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Ligue 1 · Matchday 15Saturday 2 January · 16:00 · Stade Marie-Marvingt
Le Mans17th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
Lyon3rd place
LMS 19%X 23%OL 57%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lyon lead by 197 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Lyon 0.4, Le Mans -0.7.
  • Last 5 games: Lyon 1.8 points per game, Le Mans 0.8.
  • If Le Mans score first, they win 47% of the time
  • If Lyon score first, they win 80% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.9
Over 2.557%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Lyon win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
119%5.13X23%4.31257%1.74
Double chance
1X43%2.34X281%1.241277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.557%1.76Under 2.543%2.32BTTS yes56%1.79BTTS no44%2.27

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Le Mans · Columns: Lyon1-1 probability 11.0%

Form

Compare →
Le MansWLLDL
LyonWLWLW