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Ligue 1 · Matchday 15Sunday 3 January · 19:45 · Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Lens9th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Paris Saint-Germain1st place
RCL 27%X 26%PSG 47%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Paris Saint-Germain lead by 118 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Paris Saint-Germain 3.0 points per game, Lens 1.8.
  • Paris Saint-Germain take 2.3 points per game away.
  • If Lens score first, they win 55% of the time
  • If Paris Saint-Germain score first, they win 72% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.7
Over 2.558%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Paris Saint-Germain win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
127%3.66X26%3.91247%2.12
Double chance
1X53%1.89X273%1.381274%1.34
Goals
Over 2.558%1.74Under 2.542%2.36BTTS yes60%1.67BTTS no40%2.49

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lens · Columns: Paris Saint-Germain1-1 probability 11.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Lens – Paris Saint-Germain13 May 20260-2
Paris Saint-Germain – Lens14 September 20252-0
Lens – Paris Saint-Germain18 January 20251-2
Paris Saint-Germain – Lens2 November 20241-0
Lens – Paris Saint-Germain14 January 20240-2
Paris Saint-Germain – Lens26 August 20233-1