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Ligue 1 · Matchday 15Saturday 2 January · 16:00 · Stade Louis II
Monaco7th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Nice8th place
MON 56%X 25%NIC 20%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Monaco lead by 69 rating points.
  • Monaco take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • Derby match.
  • If Monaco score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Nice score first, they win 48% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.1
Over 2.556%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Monaco win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
156%1.80X25%4.03220%5.12
Double chance
1X80%1.24X244%2.261275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.556%1.78Under 2.544%2.29BTTS yes56%1.79BTTS no44%2.27

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Monaco · Columns: Nice1-1 probability 11.3%

Form

Compare →
MonacoWDLDL
NiceWWLWW

Head to head

Nice – Monaco8 February 20260-0
Monaco – Nice5 October 20252-2
Monaco – Nice29 March 20252-1
Nice – Monaco27 October 20242-1
Nice – Monaco11 February 20242-3
Monaco – Nice22 September 20230-1