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Championship · Matchday 22Saturday 19 December · 12:30 · Ashton Gate Stadium
Bristol City14th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Cardiff City17th place
BRC 49%X 26%CAR 25%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Derby match.
  • If Bristol City score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Cardiff City score first, they win 55% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.1
Over 2.550%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Bristol City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
149%2.06X26%3.79225%3.99
Double chance
1X75%1.33X251%1.941274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.550%1.98Under 2.550%2.02BTTS yes54%1.86BTTS no46%2.16

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bristol City · Columns: Cardiff City1-1 probability 12.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Cardiff City – Bristol City15 February 20251-1
Bristol City – Cardiff City6 October 20241-1
Bristol City – Cardiff City2 March 20240-1
Cardiff City – Bristol City28 October 20232-0
Cardiff City – Bristol City4 March 20232-0
Bristol City – Cardiff City21 August 20222-0