TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 22Saturday 19 December · 15:00 · Pride Park Stadium
Derby County23rd place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Lincoln City16th place
DER 41%X 28%LIN 31%

Prediction

  • If Derby County score first, they win 70% of the time
  • If Lincoln City score first, they win 61% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.2
Over 2.550%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Derby County win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
141%2.43X28%3.55231%3.25
Double chance
1X69%1.44X259%1.701272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.550%1.98Under 2.550%2.02BTTS yes55%1.81BTTS no45%2.23

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Derby County · Columns: Lincoln City1-1 probability 13.1%

Form

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