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Championship · Matchday 22Saturday 19 December · 12:30 · Vicarage Road
Watford21st place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Bolton Wanderers19th place
WAT 46%X 26%BOL 28%

Prediction

  • If Watford score first, they win 72% of the time
  • If Bolton Wanderers score first, they win 57% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.2
Over 2.555%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Watford win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
146%2.17X26%3.78228%3.62
Double chance
1X72%1.38X254%1.851274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.555%1.82Under 2.545%2.22BTTS yes58%1.73BTTS no42%2.38

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Watford · Columns: Bolton Wanderers1-1 probability 12.2%

Form

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