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Championship · Matchday 22Saturday 19 December · 12:30 · The Den
Millwall12th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Charlton Athletic20th place
MIL 64%X 23%CHA 14%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Millwall lead by 145 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Millwall 0.5, Charlton Athletic -0.6.
  • Last 5 games: Millwall 1.4 points per game, Charlton Athletic 0.4.
  • If Millwall score first, they win 86% of the time
  • If Charlton Athletic score first, they win 43% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.8 – 0.7
Over 2.546%
Both teams score42%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
164%1.57X23%4.38214%7.37
Double chance
1X86%1.16X236%2.751277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.546%2.20Under 2.554%1.83BTTS yes42%2.36BTTS no58%1.74

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Millwall · Columns: Charlton Athletic1-0 probability 14.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Millwall – Charlton Athletic24 January 20264-0
Charlton Athletic – Millwall13 September 20251-1