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Championship · Matchday 22Saturday 19 December · 15:00 · Turf Moor
Burnley22nd place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Stoke City7th place
BUR 49%X 28%STK 24%

Prediction

  • If Burnley score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Stoke City score first, they win 56% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.0
Over 2.546%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Burnley win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
149%2.05X28%3.62224%4.23
Double chance
1X76%1.31X251%1.951272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.546%2.18Under 2.554%1.85BTTS yes50%2.00BTTS no50%2.00

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Burnley · Columns: Stoke City1-1 probability 13.1%

Form

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Head to head

Burnley – Stoke City1 January 20250-0
Stoke City – Burnley30 November 20240-2
Stoke City – Burnley30 December 20220-1
Burnley – Stoke City5 October 20221-1