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Championship · Matchday 22Saturday 19 December · 15:00 · Riverside Stadium
Middlesbrough1st place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Portsmouth11th place
MID 63%X 23%POR 14%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Middlesbrough lead by 119 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Middlesbrough 1.2, Portsmouth 0.1.
  • Middlesbrough take 2.3 points per game at home.
  • If Middlesbrough score first, they win 84% of the time
  • If Portsmouth score first, they win 42% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals2.0 – 0.8
Over 2.554%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
163%1.58X23%4.43214%7.04
Double chance
1X86%1.17X237%2.721277%1.29
Goals
Over 2.554%1.87Under 2.546%2.15BTTS yes50%2.01BTTS no50%1.99

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Middlesbrough · Columns: Portsmouth2-0 probability 11.7%

Form

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Head to head

Middlesbrough – Portsmouth11 April 20260-1
Portsmouth – Middlesbrough4 October 20251-0
Portsmouth – Middlesbrough18 January 20252-1
Middlesbrough – Portsmouth24 August 20242-2