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Championship · Matchday 17Wednesday 25 November · 19:45 · Turf Moor
Burnley22nd place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Birmingham City6th place
BUR 35%X 28%BIR 37%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Birmingham City 2.4 points per game, Burnley 1.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Birmingham City 0.3, Burnley -0.2.
  • If Burnley score first, they win 65% of the time
  • If Birmingham City score first, they win 67% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.3
Over 2.547%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Birmingham City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
135%2.87X28%3.55237%2.70
Double chance
1X63%1.59X265%1.531272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.547%2.11Under 2.553%1.90BTTS yes53%1.88BTTS no47%2.13

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Burnley · Columns: Birmingham City1-1 probability 13.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Burnley – Birmingham City27 December 20223-0
Birmingham City – Burnley19 October 20221-1