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Championship · Matchday 17Tuesday 24 November · 20:00 · Molineux Stadium
Wolverhampton4th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Derby County23rd place
WOL 64%X 22%DER 14%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Wolverhampton 2.0 points per game, Derby County 0.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Wolverhampton 0.7, Derby County -0.9.
  • Wolverhampton lead by 72 rating points.
  • If Wolverhampton score first, they win 84% of the time
  • If Derby County score first, they win 41% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.0 – 0.8
Over 2.554%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
164%1.57X22%4.52214%7.03
Double chance
1X86%1.17X236%2.751278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.554%1.84Under 2.546%2.19BTTS yes50%1.99BTTS no50%2.01

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Wolverhampton · Columns: Derby County2-0 probability 11.6%

Form

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