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Championship · Matchday 17Tuesday 24 November · 19:45 · Riverside Stadium
Middlesbrough1st place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Swansea City3rd place
MID 60%X 23%SWA 17%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Middlesbrough 1.2, Swansea City 0.3.
  • Last 5 games: Middlesbrough 2.6 points per game, Swansea City 1.8.
  • Middlesbrough take 2.3 points per game at home.
  • If Middlesbrough score first, they win 82% of the time
  • If Swansea City score first, they win 45% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.9 – 0.9
Over 2.553%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-0 is the likeliest score within a Middlesbrough win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
160%1.67X23%4.28217%6.00
Double chance
1X83%1.20X240%2.501277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.553%1.88Under 2.547%2.13BTTS yes51%1.95BTTS no49%2.05

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Middlesbrough · Columns: Swansea City1-1 probability 11.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Swansea City – Middlesbrough6 April 20262-2
Middlesbrough – Swansea City9 August 20251-0
Swansea City – Middlesbrough8 March 20251-0
Middlesbrough – Swansea City10 August 20241-0
Middlesbrough – Swansea City6 April 20242-0
Swansea City – Middlesbrough16 December 20231-2