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Championship · Matchday 34Saturday 27 February · 15:00 · Turf Moor
Burnley22nd place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Watford21st place
BUR 56%X 25%WAT 19%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Burnley lead by 153 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Burnley -0.2, Watford -0.9.
  • If Burnley score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Watford score first, they win 49% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.7 – 0.9
Over 2.549%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Burnley win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
156%1.78X25%3.95219%5.37
Double chance
1X81%1.23X244%2.281275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.549%2.03Under 2.551%1.97BTTS yes50%2.00BTTS no50%2.00

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Burnley · Columns: Watford1-1 probability 12.0%

Form

Compare →
BurnleyWDLLD
WatfordLLWLL

Head to head

Watford – Burnley10 October 20260-4
Watford – Burnley18 April 20251-2
Burnley – Watford21 December 20242-1
Burnley – Watford14 February 20231-1
Watford – Burnley12 August 20221-0
Watford – Burnley30 April 20221-2