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Championship · Matchday 34Saturday 27 February · 15:00 · bet365 Stadium
Stoke City7th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Bolton Wanderers19th place
STK 53%X 26%BOL 21%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Stoke City 2.0 points per game, Bolton Wanderers 0.8.
  • Stoke City lead by 63 rating points.
  • If Stoke City score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Bolton Wanderers score first, they win 51% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.1
Over 2.554%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Stoke City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
153%1.89X26%3.89221%4.69
Double chance
1X79%1.27X247%2.131274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.554%1.87Under 2.546%2.15BTTS yes55%1.83BTTS no45%2.21

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Stoke City · Columns: Bolton Wanderers1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

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Head to head

Bolton Wanderers – Stoke City10 October 20261-2